After last year鈥檚 apocalyptic fires engulfed Canada鈥檚 Northwest Territories and catalyzed the mass evacuation of not only the 20,000 residents of the territorial capital city of Yellowknife, but over a majority of the NWT鈥檚 population in excess of 45,000 residents, it had become abundantly clear that the long foreseen era of mass climate refugees had come to the Western Arctic.
Has the Arctic reached a tipping point of no return? We checked back in with our two Arctic climate experts with whom we spoke last year, prolific author and longtime Arctic correspondent for the Edmonton Journal newspaper, Ed Struzik, now a fellow at Queen鈥檚 University鈥檚 Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy, and longtime 快盈v3 News Service journalist and editor, James Hrynyshyn, owner of Class M Communications.
With last year鈥檚 unprecedented wildfires now in our rear-view mirror, we asked Struzik how the 2024 fire season compared.
鈥淭his year,鈥� he informed us, 鈥渋s not nearly as bad as last year, but it is far from over as much of the NWT was put on notice of severe fire possibilities over the Labour Day weekend, which used to be cool and wet.鈥�
He noted that residents of Fort Good Hope were evacuated for three weeks early in the summer, and Deline came close to an evacuation in late August. Reminiscent of last year, he added that the NWT鈥檚 鈥渉ighways to the south were temporarily closed and smoke was everywhere. Compared to 10 or 20 years ago, this is a severe wildfire season,鈥� even if it was less severe than last year鈥檚 conflagrations.
All said, the NWT fire map showed (as of Sept. 3, 2024) a total of 168 fires affecting an area of 1.58 million hectares, of which 90 fires were still active and 83 of these remained out of control, one was being held, and four were under control. Another 78 were declared out.
Facing future extreme wildfire seasons: 鈥楶repare for more to come鈥�
When asked if the NWT had applied lessons from last year鈥檚 unprecedented fire season and mass evacuations, Struzik observed that the GNWT is 鈥渨orking on that now, trying to figure out how to better coordinate and manage evacuations. Everyone acknowledges that firefighters need more people, more air power and more scientific tools to get on top of the situation.鈥�
A review of the GNWT鈥檚 response to the 2023 blazes released in August 2024, according to Yellowknife-based Cabin Radio 鈥渇ound the territory needs more firefighters, more training, better coordination, and better fire modelling to face future extreme wildfire seasons,鈥� and that in 2023, it faced "challenges with understaffing, inadequate skills tracking and reliance on retired personnel who may not meet current fitness standards or be up to date with modern fire science.鈥�
Of the 568 firefighting experts flown up to the NWT last year were 鈥渟even aircraft crew, nine equipment managers, 444 firefighters, 75 people in technical positions and 33 in general roles.鈥� Additionally, Canada鈥檚 Armed Forces 鈥渋nitially provided 124 personnel to the NWT, with 100 assigned to fire lines and 24 to support fire services,鈥� and as the fires intensified, this was scaled up to peak of 350 military personnel, along five military aircraft: two Hercules aircraft, two helicopters, and a Twin Otter.
Looking beyond the NWT, Struzik observed that British Columbia and Alberta 鈥渃ontinued to be challenged by fire as does the NWT. It鈥檚 pretty clear that the North American Arctic is burning bigger, hotter and more often as Siberia has been for some time.鈥�
Struzik pointed out that the 鈥淪iberian situation is unique in that companies producing firefighting equipment have either left Russia or redirected their production to the war in Ukraine. It鈥檚 hard to rely on Russian reports, but it seems that the government is becoming indifferent to increasing wildfire challenges.鈥�
In the picturesque Canadian Rockies, the resort town of Jasper, Alta., made worldwide headlines in July 2024 when it was engulfed and partly destroyed by wildfire 鈥� with 358 of Jasper鈥檚 1,113 structures consumed by the 39,000-hectare (151-square mile) fire; 25,000 residents were forced to evacuate; and the fire is still burning more than 40 days later, albeit presently being held. 鈥淛asper, more than any other community in Canada, has been preparing for a fire. Still, they lost a third of the town. If Jasper can burn this big, what about other boreal communities that have done little to address the fire challenge?鈥�
The future of Arctic wildfires remains grim. As Struzik comments: 鈥淓ach year brings new unexpected, unwelcome surprises. Prepare for more to come.鈥�
Preparing for a future Arctic aflame?
How we can prepare for a future Arctic aflame?
James Hrynyshyn offers a sobering assessment: 鈥淭he spectre of catastrophic local manifestations of climate change should force governments at the both nation and local levels to evaluate what鈥檚 worth saving, and what isn鈥檛.
"Any community that recent history and reasonable futures (based on sophisticated climate models) suggest could be flooded, burned to the ground, or otherwise rendered at least temporarily uninhabitable should be required to produce a contingency plan for the aftermath,鈥� says the longtime 快盈v3 News Service journalist and editor and owner of Class M Communications.
For Yellowknife, whose mass evacuation remains a recent and traumatic memory, Hrynyshyn says 鈥渢hat would mean determining whether the territorial capital should be rebuilt or relocated, although none of the other communities south of the tree line in the NWT would likely present a more less-vulnerable profile when it comes to forest fires.鈥�
Asks Hrynyshyn: 鈥淏ut how does the Canadian government justify spending the billions of dollars that would be required to rebuild the city should it be burned to a crisp?鈥�
He finds hope in the innovative, remote technologies that kept the economy running during the Covid-19 pandemic: 鈥淭hanks to the internet (and Elon Musk鈥檚 Starlink network), the entire territory could be administered remotely, with only a skeleton crew of sorts living in the drastically scaled-back community that would remain. The gold mines are gone, the diamond rush is (almost?) over, and there are no new economic engines idling in the wings. In other words, other than as a traditional homeland for the Yellowknives Dene, and the relatively modest tourism industry, what justification is there for a substantial government-service presence?鈥�
Hrynyshyn anticipates that the Dene would oppose the de facto shuttering of the NWT capital city.
鈥淐ertainly, Dene would resist being relocated, and fair enough, as they were there long before the modern government came along," he reasons.
As a former resident of Yellowknife with many close professional and personal ties to the community, he has many fond memories from his years in the NWT.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 mean to pick on Yellowknife. Enterprise was pretty much destroyed in last year鈥檚 fires. It is small enough that it might be politically viable to spend the money to rebuild, but again: why?鈥�
Hard questions as the Arctic faces hotter future
These same difficult questions are being asked elsewhere around the world as the realities of climate change and the spectre of increasingly uninhabitable homelands comes to fruition.
鈥淢any low-lying, micro-island nation states around the world are planning depopulation protocols and agreements with potential host countries," says Hrynyshyn. "Managed retreat from beachfront communities around the world is inevitable. The Outer Banks is a nice piece of North Carolina, but it鈥檚 basically one big sand bar that is extremely vulnerable to natural erosion and redistribution patterns, let alone rising sea levels that will wipe it off the map before we鈥檙e too far into the second century of this millennium 鈥� sooner if we鈥檙e not lucky. Over in Africa, one of the biggest cities in the world, Lagos, is going to have to come up with a way of floating itself into the 22nd century. Again, at what cost?鈥�
Hrynyshyn observes that a 鈥渓ot of attention is paid to where climate refugees can go. Estimates of their numbers by 2100 range from 100 million upwards of a billion. While it might be tempting to think about putting them in places that climate change will convert from uncomfortably cold but now largely empty to moderately manageable, it would make no sense to move them to places that, while attractive on the temperature scales, are at increased risk of burning down. That puts a lot of Canada, which is largely boreal forest, out of contention.鈥�
It鈥檚 not just wildfires that challenge the Arctic鈥檚 future. It鈥檚 also the economic devastation that follows.
鈥淭he same reasoning would have us rethink other places with obsolete (or soon-to-be-obsolete) economies," Hrynyshyn says. "My home town of Dryden, Ont., where 1,500 people used to work in the main driver of the economy 鈥� a pulp and paper mill 鈥� now has only 150 people working in the pulp mill (the paper plant was shut down decades ago), and it鈥檚 one of the last pulp mills left in northwestern Ontario.
"It鈥檚 only a matter of time before the entire mill shutters, leaving the town in dire financial straits.鈥�
Such challenges also confront the Arctic.
鈥淟ike Yellowknife, it is a government administrative (and educational) hub for about 20,000 people, so there will be pressure to keep it going," Hrynyshyn continues. "But it is just as vulnerable to forest fires as Yellowknife. In fact, the hotel I used to work at made a lot of money each and every summer housing and feeding fire crews that responded to fires through the region. Sooner or later, Dryden will be at risk. I spent 18 years there, but ask to me to justify rebuilding it and I don鈥檛 think I鈥檇 be able to make a good case.鈥�
The same can be said for much of the fire-threatened Arctic. As Hrynyshyn puts it, 鈥淎dapting to climate change isn鈥檛 just about how we produce energy, it's about where we live.鈥�
